The MLB Playoffs start TOMORROW! GET HYPED! Even as a Red Sox fan I am STOKED for these MLB Playoffs to kick off! And what better way to get it all started then to rank the teams?
There is no better way...
This is a very long article and I don't expect everyone to read every single word. If you just want to see who I have first, second, third, etc. be my guest. If you are just wanting to read about one team, be my guest. Or if you have a 10 minute attention span and want to read it all, be my guest!
So without further ado, the IYHFSL MLB Power Rankings - Playoff Edition!
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (111-51)
In a season full of history, broken records and the New York Mets revival, it feels like not enough light is being shed on this 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers team. For a team that's lost Trevor Baur, Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler over the past two seasons (for various reasons), their starting rotation is top tier. Clayton Kershaw is somehow still amazing, putting up a 2.28 ERA, Tony Gonsolin was arguably the best starter in baseball for four straight months before he spent time on the IL (2.14 ERA, 119 Ks in 130.1 IP) and Julio Urias has been the Iron Man of this rotation, starting 31 games and pitching 175 innings (!!). I am a bit concerned for the bullpen. The Dodgers' cast of relievers is solid and definitely playoff capable, but it's not the overpowering force it could have been. There are moments of distrust, especially against teams like the Atlanta Braves, who can close the gap in a sizeable lead real quick.
The position players is where it really gets fun with this team. Let me just name drop real quick. You've got all-star Mookie Betts followed by all-star Trea Turner followed by all-star Freddie Freeman. Those three alone can win games single handedly. But they've also got past-their-prime players in Max Muncy and Justin Turner. They've had rough years compared to previous seasons, but they've still got some serious pop in their bat and they offer some protection to the rest of the lineup. Will Smith is an excellent defensive catcher that has really improved his swing coming into this season. He doesn't have the best arm however, so you might see some stolen bases throughout the playoffs.
Overall, this Dodgers team is getting a lot of my attention (and words - I won't be spending as much on the other teams) because they've got top tier groups both at the plate and on the mound. I'll be shocked if this team loses before advancing to the World Series.
Category: World Series Favorite
Opening Round Matchup: Winner of NYM/SD
2. Houston Astros (106-56)
I think the most appropriate place to start is with Justin Verlander, who basically just had the best season of his career. He's got an ERA of 1.75 in 175 innings! That's 34 earned runs, 5 more than all-star closer Josh Hader (and Hader's thrown 50 innings). Verlander has locked in the Cy Young easily. Once a team finally gets rid of Verlander (after 6+ innings of filth), they run into a pen with Rafael Montero, Ryne Stanek and Ryan Pressly, who have combined for an ERA of 2.16 in 170 relief innings. Then in the next few games, you might face Framber Valdez or Christian Javier, who are both sporting sub 3.00 ERAs this season. Even Jose Urquidy, who might be the fifth starter, has had flashes of greatness. Oh, and Lance McCullers might be joining this team soon. He might be the 5th starter. That's absurd.
Then at the plate, Yordan Alvarez (1.019 OPS!!!), Jose Altuve (short king stand up!), and Alex Bregman (revival season?) stand out as real threats. Here's the best non-statistical way to tell if a team has a great offense: when a team (say the Astros) plays your favorite team, how many guys are you afraid of? On this team, there's plenty of guys I would be afraid of. The three aforementioned as well as Kyle Tucker (team leading 107 RBIs), Jeremy Pena (jack of all trades), and Yuli Gurriel and Trey Mancini, who don't have great numbers, but boy can they do some damage if there's a pitching mistake or misplacement.
Category: World Series Contender
Opening Round Matchup: Winner of TOR/SEA
3. Atlanta Braves (101-61)
This Atlanta Braves team is so fun to watch. I've been starting with the pitching but for Atlanta I've gotta begin with their position guys. There are some teams (as you'll see) who really trail off as the batting order goes along. For some, once the number 6 hitter is up there's really no shot at excitement. The same cannot be said for Atlanta. Seven of their nine starters have an above average OPS and most of them have above average hitting splits (Batting average/OBP/Slugging). You never know when someone's going to hit a bomb or if Travis D'arnaund, Eddie Rosario and Marcell Ozuna are somehow going to make the opposing team remove their pitcher. We saw this plenty during the fantastic New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves series last week.
Of course, I have to mention young Austin Riley, first year Brave Matt Olsen, rookie Michael Harris and All-Stars Ronald Acuna Jr and Dansby Swanson as well. Basically everyone on this team has been an all-star at some point. This is one of those teams that just has threat after threat after threat up to bat. Jacob DeGrom and Max Scherzer couldn't figure it out! I wonder if anyone will.
On the bump, Max Fried has been the most consistent starter for Atlanta. Their starting rotation has not been as good as last year's World Series team, especially with Charlie Morton taking a significant step backwards, Ian Anderson out for the season and rookie Spencer Strider being a big question mark. A big question mark in terms of impact, not so much confusion as to when he'll return. It seems like Strider will be ready for the NLDS. He won't be pitching the first game or two anyways, which gives him some more time. The bullpen, however, is still top tier.
The only mainstay out of the pen for Atlanta who doesn't have a sub 2.75 ERA is Kenley Jansen, who leads the National League in saves. The entire bullpen is posting 10+ K/9 stats and absolutely amazing strikeout to walk ratios. If a team doesn't have an early lead against the Braves, its going to be hard to stick with them, as we saw in the Mets series last week.
Category: World Series Contender
Opening Round Matchup: Winner of STL/PHI
4. New York Mets (101-61)
Going into the Braves series, the Mets' rotation was objectively the best in the MLB with Jacob DeGrom followed by Max Scherzer followed by Chris Bassitt. I still think they are the best, but the Braves showed that they are absolutely still human. Any good hitting team will capitalize on mistakes and in playoff baseball, you don't need many mistakes to cost your team the game. Or the series. The Mets' pitching is pretty easy to break down: they have two of the best starters in baseball, and I cannot see the Padres offense being able to do much against them.
The issue is that DeGrom and Scherzer won't pitch in the first game or two of the NLDS, which would be against the Dodgers. If the series is 2-0 before DeGrom even pitches, I cannot see this season ending well for New York. In the bullpen, the Mets have the best closer in baseball in Edwin Diaz (32 saves with a 1.31 ERA in 62 innings), but the rest is pretty hit or miss. Sometimes Adam Ottavino will strike out the side, sometimes he'll give up multiple runs in an inning. That pretty much sums up the Mets' pen. It's usually solid but in the back of your mind there's worries of them getting blown up.
At the plate, there's not a lot of consistent pop besides Pete Alonso. Alonso was a monster in the first half of the season, but he's cooled down a bit since the All-Star break. The Mets were fifth in runs scored, but only 15th in home runs. They were middle of the pack in terms of slugging and extra base hits. 67% of their hits were singles. Others teams, like the Dodgers and Astros, had a lot more pop (59% of Dodger hits were singles, 61% for Astros). That may not seem like a huge discrepancy, but that can turn into multiple bases a game.
My point is that the Mets are more of an old school offense, which makes sense considering their manager is Buck Showalter. That isn't necessarily a bad thing, I mean they did win 101 games. That strategy just relies a lot more on consistent contact, and in the playoffs contact is hard to find. With power heavy teams, a hit or two can bring in a run but with teams like the Mets, two or even three hits in a row might not bring anyone in. The Mets had 27 hits in the Braves series last week but only scored 7 runs. The Braves had 24 hits but 14 runs. Shoutout Jeff McNeil for winning the National League batting crown.
Category: World Series Contender
Opening Round Matchup: San Diego Padres
5. New York Yankees (99-63)
This has been a really weird season for the Yankees. They started out as the best team of all time, settled into a World Series contender, lost 20 games in one month (11-23 from July 10 to August 12), and finished up 2nd in the American League. Oh and some guy named Aaron Judge broke the home run record. They were 15th in batting average but second in runs scored. The contact for this team isn't great (excluding Judge), but they are very powerful and anyone can hit a bomb at any point, especially if they're in Yankee Stadium.
That being said, there aren't a lot of guys that scare me. Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton are the only three that scare me at any given time. But then we get to the back side of the order and it's Aaron Hicks, Harrison Bader, Josh Donaldson or whoever else is back there and you breath a sigh of relief. But, if you relax too much and make mistakes, you could get into trouble no matter where in the order you are.
The pitching for the Yankees has been fantastic. They are basically top three in every pitching metric. And it's a combination of the starting rotation and the bull pen. Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes highlight the starters but then you've got arms like Clay Holmes and Lucas Leutge coming out of the pen to wrap things up. If this team makes a deep run, it will most likely be on the backs of the pitching staff.
Category: World Series Contender
Opening Round Matchup: Winner of CLE/TB
6. St Louis Cardinals (93-69)
This has been quite the season for the Cardinals as well. Amidst a divisional comeback, Albert Pujols reached the 700 home run mark and it seems like Pujols, Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright will be ending their careers after this postseason run. Neither their pitching staff or offensive staff are top tier, but both units are very solid. All it would take it for one of these units to get hot and they could definitely make a series with Los Angeles interesting. I put them in the category "We Just Need to Get Past LA" because if they beat the Dodgers in the NLDS, the hardest part is out of the way. Beating the Dodgers probably means that both of those units got really hot.
Category: We Just Need to Get Past LA
Opening Round Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies
7. Toronto Blue Jays (92-70)
A lot of people had this Blue Jays team as a World Series contender in March, but I think they've shown that their pitching staff isn't quite ready to compete for a championship. In all honesty, their pitching has improved from last season, but the pitching staff is one of the worst among the playoff teams. They should have entertaining games, however, because they'll definitely be allowing a lot of runs and scoring a lot of runs. If they beat Seattle, which I think they will, I have a feeling that Houston is going to score 6+ runs a game in that series. I put Toronto in the "We Just Need to Get Past Houston" because I'm guessing that defeating the Astros to advance to the ALCS means that the Blue Jays offense is legitimately ready to win a ring. I don't expect much from the disappointing Blue Jays.
Category: We Just Need to Get Past Houston
Opening Round Matchup: Seattle Mariners
8. Cleveland Guardians (92-70)
The Guardians have been one of the most surprising teams. The AL Central was supposed to be a fight between the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins until Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Triston McKenzie and Shane Bieber decided to show up. They should rename this team again: the Cleveland Avengers. I certainly expect them to beat the Rays, but the lower starters in the pitching rotation might get rocked against the Yankees in the ALDS. They remind me of the Cardinals in the sense that neither their pitching staff or offensive lineup is otherworldly, but both units are solid and they have a chance if they get hot at the right moment. I doubt they make it to the ALCS, but as a Red Sox fan I'll be rooting for them every step of the way.
Category: Wait... Do We Have a Shot?
Opening Round Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays
9. Seattle Mariners (90-72)
Seattle doesn't really stick out in any particular way but they have really fun players and a fantastic fan base that will make these games electric. Julio Rodriguez is going to run away with AL Rookie of the Year and All-Star Ty France headline their offense while Robbie Ray (2021 Cy Young winner), Luis Castillo (2x All-Star) and Logan Webb (24-year old, 6'6" freak of nature) headline their pitching staff. The bullpen does the job with Penn Murfee and Paul Seewald (sub 3.00 ERA guys). I think this series with Toronto will be fun, but I don't see it going very well for Seattle. I'm sure Seattle's just glad to be there.
Category: Wait... Do We Have a Shot?
Opening Round Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays
10. San Diego Padres (89-73)
A promising midseason trade has led to a probable Wild Card exit. Between midseason acquisitions Juan Soto and Josh Hader underperforming and Fernando Tatis Jr testing positive for PEDs, it's been a rough couple of months. Especially as the players they traded away have looked fantastic (specifically CJ Abrams). There's really only a couple of bats that scare me. Manny Machado might be able to propel the team to one win, but even he can't carry this offense. The series against the Mets will probably be a pitchers' dual, with Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove matching up against Jacob Degrom and Max Scherzer. If you want to see awesome pitching, watch this series. Maybe next year San Diego.
Category: We Traded Our Future for a Wild Card Exit
Opening Round Matchup: New York Mets
11. Tampa Bay Rays (86-76)
This team just doesn't excite me. This is the last team I've written about and that's for a legitimately good reason: uh, ya boring.
But for real: the Rays are 25th in slugging, 25th in home runs, 17th in batting average and 21st in runs scored. That's not fun. They are fourth in ERA and they've given up the fifth least runs on defense. That's also not fun (at least for casual fans). Or maybe Corey Kluber will pitch and give up 8 runs in 3 innings.
But I guess there would be no way the Rays would make that a close game since they only score 4.1 runs a game.
Category: It's Been Fun (Sorta)
Opening Round Matchup: Cleveland Guardians
12. Philadelphia Phillies (87-75)
It's been a good season for the Phillies. They had some early struggles with defense and managing and high highs and low lows. They're a very streaky team. It seemed like they lost 4 in a row, won 6 in a row, lost 3 in a row, won 5 in a row, etc. This also might be a fun team to watch. They had a very good offense and a terrible defense. Hopefully that leads to some high scoring affairs with St Louis. Shoutout Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
Category: It's Been Fun
Opening Round Matchup: St Louis Cardinals
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