To start, as a semi-Nationals fan (I like the Red Sox too), I was very conflicted on who I wanted to win the ALCS. I wanted the Yankees to get out as soon as possible, but I also thought the Nationals would have a better chance against them.
In case you were wondering.
Like most long postseason runs, both of these teams have stellar pitching. The Astros have the two best strikeout pitchers in the MLB, and the Nationals have three top 10 strikeout pitchers.
The Astros have the two best pitchers in the series, with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, but the Nationals have 4 really strong starters, so you can bet on this series being a low scoring one (don't actually bet on it, since it's probably illegal for a lot of you readers).
The Astros made a great mid-season trade for Roberto Osuna, one of the best closers in the game, who was first in saves and top 5 in ERA in the regular season. He hasn't had the most success this postseason, but we'll see how he turns out in high pressure situations this series.
The Nationals are deeper at the pitching position, with the Astros having one pitcher injured and one less on their roster. That's a huge advantage because lots of times you just need a few outs for the win and you can chuck one of your best pitchers out to get them, with no thoughts that they have to pitch 15 more times the rest of the season, since it's only a 7 game series.
Last pitching part: Astros starters struck out 28.9% of the batters they faced in the regular season, the highest rate in MLB history. Nationals starters have struck out 36.1% of the batters they've faced in the postseason. The starters on these two teams have held their opponents to a combined batting average of .183 in the postseason.
The Astros batters have six more homeruns than the Nationals this postseason, but with 40 more at bats. The Nationals, however, have more runs scored and RBI, with 10 less strikeouts than the Astros. Total bases is a great stat to compare, and the teams are pretty close together, Astros have 7 more, but that's not surprising since they've had 40 more at bats.
Overall, the Astros and the Nationals seem like pretty even teams, so we can count on a close, long and exciting series. Caesars Sportsbook installed the Astros as -235 favorites in the Fall Classic. I'm not sure what that means, but it makes the Astros one of the largest favorites in the last 20 years.
That's largely in part because the Astros have the second best offense since the Babe Ruth-Lou Gehrig Yankees in 1923, at least according to the metric weighted runs created plus (wRC+), which adjusts for park and era and is some fancy analytics thing which I also don't understand.
Some players to watch from the Nationals are Ryan Zimmerman, who's been with the team for 14 years, Max Scherzer, one of the best pitchers the last 5 years, and Juan Soto, who's better than Bryce Harper was at age 20.
The Astros' standouts are Jose Altuve, who has had more home runs than strikeouts this postseason, Justin Verlander, pretty much the best pitcher in the league who's also 36 (which is old for a pitcher), and George Springer, who will probably be looking for another World Series MVP trophy to put on his shelf.
My picks: I think, and this is hard for me to say, that the Astros will win 4-2, and Jose Altuve will win the MVP honors. The Astros have the best 1-2 pitching combo in baseball with one of the best closers as well. Their offense is one of the best in the last 100 years, and they have home field advantage.
Sorry this piece is just 12 hours or so before the World Series starts, but hopefully it gets you hyped for one of the biggest championships in sports! Happy Fall Classic!
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