The other day it was announced that the FBS' 4-team College Football Playoff was going to be expanded. When I saw that news I assumed it would expand to include 4 more teams, for a total of 8. Nope. They're jumping from 4 teams to 12.
Obviously there are logistical questions, but those are kind of boring. The first non-logistical question that came to my mind was: Is the NCAA overcompensating? Are they going too far?
Cons
Over the years, we have seen absolutely thrilling games between top teams where every single second makes a difference. We have seen very high scoring and entertaining classics between 2 teams ranked in the top 12. At the same time, we also have 8 Oklahoma beating 10 Florida 55-20 last season.
As I am writing this, 3 Georgia is demolishing 11 Oregon (Georgia won 49-3!).
To fulfill my research requirements, I looked at every game in the past three NCAAF seasons between a top 8 team and a team ranked 9-16. There have been 38 games played between these two groups. The top 8 teams have won an astonishing amount of these games, going 28-10. If the College Football Committee is hoping to infuse some March Madness magic into the College Football Playoffs, I have to believe that they will be mostly unsuccessful, especially as we've seen the complete and utter dominance from the top 4 or 5 teams year after year (e.g. Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State).
Of course, this lack of many Cinderella runs might make it even more magical when upsets happen. The supply will be low and the demand will be very high, so if a double digit seed makes the championship once a decade, that one run will be cherished more than the double digit seeds making the Sweet Sixteen in March Madness every year
However, in this little research experiment I ran, there was another number that surprised me. There was another number that gave me hope...
Pros
In these 38 games, the top 8 teams averaged 32.7 points per game. However, the 9-16 ranked teams scored 24.2 points per game. That's only an 8.5 point difference, which is more than a single score can get you in football, but it is a difference that a team can overcome in half a quarter. Or maybe even in a few minutes.
Another stat that gave me hope: in those 38 games, 18 of them ended up being one score games. In these playoff games, the atmosphere will be absolutely electric. You will literally be able to feel the sparks fly in these arenas. Combine that with games that will often be close, and the College Playoff Committee might be onto something here. And let's be honest: if 11 West Virginia is playing 6 Notre Dame, for example, everyone is going to be watching no matter the score.
My Take
I think that every year we'll have a few playoff games that are completely uncompetitive and boring. But that's the case with every sport. There are NBA Finals games that end up being blowouts. There are always lopsided NFL Wild Card games (believe me, as a Patriots fan I know...).
But the potential for bad games should not take away from the guarantee of great ones. They're adding 8 playoff games - I would be shocked if 6 of them aren't good or great games to watch. I am against even further Playoff Expansion, however, because we don't want to dilute or normalize the rare College Football Playoff magic.
Adding 8 football playoff games will end up being a net positive. It will add two weeks of great, meaningful football and give more fanbases hope that a FBS Championship is coming home.
Like the post & comment below whether or not you agree with me!
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